arXiv:2509.02792v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Existing approaches to predictive uncertainty rely either on multi-hypothesis prediction, which promotes diversity but lacks principled aggregation, or on ensemble learning, which improves accuracy but rarely captures the structured ambiguity. This implicitly means that a unified framework consistent with the loss geometry remains absent. The Structured Basis Function Network addresses this gap by linking multi-hypothesis prediction and ensembling through centroidal aggregation induced by Bregman divergences. The formulation applies across regression and classification by aligning predictions with the geometry of the loss, and supports both a closed-form least-squares estimator and a gradient-based procedure for general objectives. A tunable diversity mechanism provides parametric control of the bias-variance-diversity trade-off, connecting multi-hypothesis generalisation with loss-aware ensemble aggregation. Experiments validate this relation and use the mechanism to study the complexity-capacity-diversity trade-off across datasets of increasing difficulty with deep-learning predictors.
Original: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.02792