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arXiv:2508.20067v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A key objective in spatial statistics is to simulate from the distribution of a spatial process at a selection of unobserved locations conditional on observations (i.e., a predictive distribution) to enable spatial prediction and uncertainty quantification. However, exact conditional simulation from this predictive distribution is intractable or inefficient for many spatial process models. In this paper, we propose neural conditional simulation (NCS), a general method for spatial conditional simulation that is based on neural diffusion models. Specifically, using spatial masks, we implement a conditional score-based diffusion model that evolves Gaussian noise into samples from a predictive distribution when given a partially observed spatial field and spatial process parameters as inputs. The diffusion model relies on a neural network that only requires unconditional samples from the spatial process for training. Once trained, the diffusion model is amortized with respect to the observations in the partially observed field, the number and locations of those observations, and the spatial process parameters, and can therefore be used to conditionally simulate from a broad class of predictive distributions without retraining the neural network. We assess the NCS-generated simulations against simulations from the true conditional distribution of a Gaussian process model, and against Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations from a Brown--Resnick process model for spatial extremes. In the latter case, we show that it is more efficient and accurate to conditionally simulate using NCS than classical MCMC techniques implemented in standard software. We conclude that NCS enables efficient and accurate conditional simulation from spatial predictive distributions that are challenging to sample from using traditional methods.

arXiv:2503.03007v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In recent years, the ascendance of diffusion modeling as a state-of-the-art generative modeling approach has spurred significant interest in their use as priors in Bayesian inverse problems. However, it is unclear how to optimally integrate a diffusion model trained on the prior distribution with a given likelihood function to obtain posterior samples. While algorithms developed for this purpose can produce high-quality, diverse point estimates of the unknown parameters of interest, they are often tested on problems where the prior distribution is analytically unknown, making it difficult to assess their performance in providing rigorous uncertainty quantification. Motivated by this challenge, this work introduces three benchmark problems for evaluating the performance of diffusion model based samplers. The benchmark problems, which are inspired by problems in image inpainting, x-ray tomography, and phase retrieval, have a posterior density that is analytically known. In this setting, approximate ground-truth posterior samples can be obtained, enabling principled evaluation of the performance of posterior sampling algorithms. This work also introduces a general framework for diffusion model based posterior sampling, Bayesian Inverse Problem Solvers through Diffusion Annealing (BIPSDA). This framework unifies several recently proposed diffusion-model-based posterior sampling algorithms and contains novel algorithms that can be realized through flexible combinations of design choices. We tested the performance of a set of BIPSDA algorithms, including previously proposed state-of-the-art approaches, on the proposed benchmark problems. The results provide insight into the strengths and limitations of existing diffusion-model based posterior samplers, while the benchmark problems provide a testing ground for future algorithmic developments.

arXiv:2212.12028v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Prognostication for lung cancer, a leading cause of mortality, remains a complex task, as it needs to quantify the associations of risk factors and health events spanning a patient's entire life. One challenge is that an individual's disease course involves non-terminal (e.g., disease progression) and terminal (e.g., death) events, which form semi-competing relationships. Our motivation comes from the Boston Lung Cancer Study, a large lung cancer survival cohort, which investigates how risk factors influence a patient's disease trajectory. Following developments in the prediction of time-to-event outcomes with neural networks, deep learning has become a focal area for the development of risk prediction methods in survival analysis. However, limited work has been done to predict multi-state or semi-competing risk outcomes, where a patient may experience adverse events such as disease progression prior to death. We propose a novel neural expectation-maximization algorithm to bridge the gap between classical statistical approaches and machine learning. Our algorithm enables estimation of the non-parametric baseline hazards of each state transition, risk functions of predictors, and the degree of dependence among different transitions, via a multi-task deep neural network with transition-specific sub-architectures. We apply our method to the Boston Lung Cancer Study and investigate the impact of clinical and genetic predictors on disease progression and mortality.

arXiv:2505.24595v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recent work in time series forecasting has explored reformulating regression as a classification task. By discretizing the continuous target space into bins and predicting over a fixed set of classes, these approaches benefit from more stable training, improved uncertainty modeling, and compatibility with modern deep learning architectures. However, most existing methods rely on one-hot encoding, which ignores the inherent ordinal structure of the target values. As a result, they fail to convey information about the relative distance between predicted and true values during training. In this paper, we address this limitation by applying textbf{Cumulative Binary Encoding} (CBE), a monotonic binary representation that transforms both model inputs and outputs. CBE implicitly preserves ordinal and magnitude information, allowing models to learn distance aware representations while operating within a classification framework. To leverage CBE effectively, we propose textbf{BinConv}, a fully convolutional neural network architecture designed for probabilistic forecasting. We demonstrate that standard fully connected layers are not only less computationally efficient than convolutional layers when used with CBE, but also degrade forecasting performance. Our experiments on standard benchmark datasets show that BinConv achieves superior performance compared to widely used baselines in both point and probabilistic forecasting, while requiring fewer parameters and enabling faster training.

arXiv:2402.02817v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Machine learning algorithms may have disparate impacts on protected groups. To address this, we develop methods for Bayes-optimal fair classification, aiming to minimize classification error subject to given group fairness constraints. We introduce the notion of emph{linear disparity measures}, which are linear functions of a probabilistic classifier; and emph{bilinear disparity measures}, which are also linear in the group-wise regression functions. We show that several popular disparity measures -- the deviations from demographic parity, equality of opportunity, and predictive equality -- are bilinear. We find the form of Bayes-optimal fair classifiers under a single linear disparity measure, by uncovering a connection with the Neyman-Pearson lemma. For bilinear disparity measures, we are able to find the explicit form of Bayes-optimal fair classifiers as group-wise thresholding rules with explicitly characterized thresholds. We develop similar algorithms for when protected attribute cannot be used at the prediction phase. Moreover, we obtain analogous theoretical characterizations of optimal classifiers for a multi-class protected attribute and for equalized odds. Leveraging our theoretical results, we design methods that learn fair Bayes-optimal classifiers under bilinear disparity constraints. Our methods cover three popular approaches to fairness-aware classification, via pre-processing (Fair Up- and Down-Sampling), in-processing (Fair cost-sensitive Classification) and post-processing (a Fair Plug-In Rule). Our methods control disparity directly while achieving near-optimal fairness-accuracy tradeoffs. We show empirically that our methods have state-of-the-art performance compared to existing algorithms. In particular, our pre-processing method can a reach higher accuracy than prior pre-processing methods at low disparity levels.

arXiv:2508.19750v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Normalizing Flows provide a principled framework for high-dimensional density estimation and generative modeling by constructing invertible transformations with tractable Jacobian determinants. We propose Fractal Flow, a novel normalizing flow architecture that enhances both expressiveness and interpretability through two key innovations. First, we integrate Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks and incorporate Latent Dirichlet Allocation into normalizing flows to construct a structured, interpretable latent space and model hierarchical semantic clusters. Second, inspired by Fractal Generative Models, we introduce a recursive modular design into normalizing flows to improve transformation interpretability and estimation accuracy. Experiments on MNIST, FashionMNIST, CIFAR-10, and geophysical data demonstrate that the Fractal Flow achieves latent clustering, controllable generation, and superior estimation accuracy.

The exodus has set off alarms among staff at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: “My main concern is they will be replaced with puppets.”

arXiv:2504.13655v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conversational recommender systems enable natural language conversations and thus lead to a more engaging and effective recommendation scenario. As the conversations for recommender systems usually contain limited contextual information, many existing conversational recommender systems incorporate external sources to enrich the contextual information. However, how to combine different types of contextual information is still a challenge. In this paper, we propose a multi-type context-aware conversational recommender system, called MCCRS, effectively fusing multi-type contextual information via mixture-of-experts to improve conversational recommender systems. MCCRS incorporates both structured information and unstructured information, including the structured knowledge graph, unstructured conversation history, and unstructured item reviews. It consists of several experts, with each expert specialized in a particular domain (i.e., one specific contextual information). Multiple experts are then coordinated by a ChairBot to generate the final results. Our proposed MCCRS model takes advantage of different contextual information and the specialization of different experts followed by a ChairBot breaks the model bottleneck on a single contextual information. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed MCCRS method achieves significantly higher performance compared to existing baselines.

arXiv:2508.19264v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A growing body of empirical work suggests that the widespread adoption of generative AI produces a significant homogenizing effect on information, creativity, and cultural production. I first develop a novel theoretical framework to explain this phenomenon. I argue that a dynamic of AI-derivative epistemology, in which individuals increasingly defer to AI outputs, allows a centralized AI Prism to function, a technical mechanism whose architecture is designed to reduce variance and converge on the statistical mean. This provides a causal explanation for the generative monocultures observed in recent studies. However, I contend this represents only the first stage of a more complex and dialectical process. This paper's central and paradoxical thesis is that the very homogenization that flattens knowledge within specialized domains simultaneously renders that knowledge into consistent modules that can be recombined across them, a process foundational to innovation and creativity. However, this recombinant potential is not automatic, but rather conditional. This paper argues that these opposing forces, homogenizing defaults versus recombinant possibilities, are governed by the nature of human engagement with the technology. The ultimate effect of generative AI is conditional on whether individuals act as passive consumers deferring to the AI's statistical outputs, or as active curators who critically interrogate, re-contextualize, and recombine them. The paper concludes by outlining the cognitive and institutional scaffolds required to resolve this tension, arguing they are the decisive variable that determine whether generative AI becomes an instrument of innovation or homogenization.