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A Log-Linear Analytics Approach to Cost Model Regularization for Inpatient Stays through Diagnostic Code Merging

arXiv:2507.03843v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Cost models in healthcare research must balance interpretability, accuracy, and parameter consistency. However, interpretable models often struggle to achieve both accuracy and consistency. Ordinary least squares (OLS) models for high-dimensional regression can be accurate but fail to produce stable regression coefficients over time when using highly granular ICD-10 diagnostic codes as predictors. This instability arises because many ICD-10 codes are infrequent in healthcare datasets. While regularization methods such as Ridge can address this issue, they risk discarding important predictors. Here, we demonstrate that reducing the granularity of ICD-10 codes is an effective regularization strategy within OLS while preserving the representation of all diagnostic code categories. By truncating ICD-10 codes from seven characters to six or fewer, we reduce the dimensionality of the regression problem while maintaining model interpretability and consistency. Mathematically, the merging of predictors in OLS leads to increased trace of the Hessian matrix, which reduces the variance of coefficient estimation. Our findings explain why broader diagnostic groupings like DRGs and HCC codes are favored over highly granular ICD-10 codes in real-world risk adjustment and cost models.

Data Cartography for Detecting Memorization Hotspots and Guiding Data Interventions in Generative Models

arXiv:2509.00083v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Modern generative models risk overfitting and unintentionally memorizing rare training examples, which can be extracted by adversaries or inflate benchmark performance. We propose Generative Data Cartography (GenDataCarto), a data-centric framework that assigns each pretraining sample a difficulty score (early-epoch loss) and a memorization score (frequency of ``forget events''), then partitions examples into four quadrants to guide targeted pruning and up-/down-weighting. We prove that our memorization score lower-bounds classical influence under smoothness assumptions and that down-weighting high-memorization hotspots provably decreases the generalization gap via uniform stability bounds. Empirically, GenDataCarto reduces synthetic canary extraction success by over 40% at just 10% data pruning, while increasing validation perplexity by less than 0.5%. These results demonstrate that principled data interventions can dramatically mitigate leakage with minimal cost to generative performance.

Heterogeneous Directed Hypergraph Neural Network over abstract syntax tree (AST) for Code Classification

arXiv:2305.04228v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Code classification is a difficult issue in program understanding and automatic coding. Due to the elusive syntax and complicated semantics in programs, most existing studies use techniques based on abstract syntax tree (AST) and graph neural networks (GNN) to create code representations for code classification. These techniques utilize the structure and semantic information of the code, but they only take into account pairwise associations and neglect the high-order data correlations that already exist between nodes of the same field or called attribute in the AST, which may result in the loss of code structural information. On the other hand, while a general hypergraph can encode high-order data correlations, it is homogeneous and undirected which will result in a lack of semantic and structural information such as node types, edge types, and directions between child nodes and parent nodes when modeling AST. In this study, we propose a heterogeneous directed hypergraph (HDHG) to represent AST and a heterogeneous directed hypergraph neural network (HDHGN) to process the graph for code classification. Our method improves code understanding and can represent high-order data correlations beyond paired interactions. We assess our heterogeneous directed hypergraph neural network (HDHGN) on public datasets of Python and Java programs. Our method outperforms previous AST-based and GNN-based methods, which demonstrates the capability of our model.

Learning to Refine: Self-Refinement of Parallel Reasoning in LLMs

arXiv:2509.00084v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: To further enhance the ability of Large Language Models (LLMs) to solve complex, multi-step reasoning problems, test-time scaling (TTS) methods have gained widespread attention. Existing approaches such as Best-of-N and majority voting are limited as their performance depends on the quality of candidate responses, making them unable to produce a correct solution when all candidates are incorrect. Introducing an additional model to select the best response also incurs significant deployment costs. To this end, we introduce Generative Self-Refinement (GSR), a novel parallel test-time scaling framework where a unified model first generates a set of candidate responses in parallel and then performs self-refinement to synthesize a new superior solution based on a prompt consisting of the problem and these candidates. However, LLMs struggle to perform refinement effectively when prompted directly. Therefore, we design a hybrid training pipeline by jointly optimizing for two complementary objectives, solving problems directly and refining candidate responses. Experimental results demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance across five mathematical benchmarks. We further show that this learned self-refinement skill is a model-agnostic enhancement, robust across different model scales and generalizing to out-of-distribution reasoning tasks.

Robust Federated Learning in Unreliable Wireless Networks: A Client Selection Approach

arXiv:2502.17260v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Federated learning (FL) has emerged as a promising distributed learning paradigm for training deep neural networks (DNNs) at the wireless edge, but its performance can be severely hindered by unreliable wireless transmission and inherent data heterogeneity among clients. Existing solutions primarily address these challenges by incorporating wireless resource optimization strategies, often focusing on uplink resource allocation across clients under the assumption of homogeneous client-server network standards. However, these approaches overlooked the fact that mobile clients may connect to the server via diverse network standards (e.g., 4G, 5G, Wi-Fi) with customized configurations, limiting the flexibility of server-side modifications and restricting applicability in real-world commercial networks. This paper presents a novel theoretical analysis about how transmission failures in unreliable networks distort the effective label distributions of local samples, causing deviations from the global data distribution and introducing convergence bias in FL. Our analysis reveals that a carefully designed client selection strategy can mitigate biases induced by network unreliability and data heterogeneity. Motivated by this insight, we propose FedCote, a client selection approach that optimizes client selection probabilities without relying on wireless resource scheduling. Experimental results demonstrate the robustness of FedCote in DNN-based classification tasks under unreliable networks with frequent transmission failures.

Centralized vs. Federated Learning for Educational Data Mining: A Comparative Study on Student Performance Prediction with SAEB Microdata

arXiv:2509.00086v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The application of data mining and artificial intelligence in education offers unprecedented potential for personalizing learning and early identification of at-risk students. However, the practical use of these techniques faces a significant barrier in privacy legislation, such as Brazil's General Data Protection Law (LGPD), which restricts the centralization of sensitive student data. To resolve this challenge, privacy-preserving computational approaches are required. The present study evaluates the feasibility and effectiveness of Federated Learning, specifically the FedProx algorithm, to predict student performance using microdata from the Brazilian Basic Education Assessment System (SAEB). A Deep Neural Network (DNN) model was trained in a federated manner, simulating a scenario with 50 schools, and its performance was rigorously benchmarked against a centralized eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model. The analysis, conducted on a universe of over two million student records, revealed that the centralized model achieved an accuracy of 63.96%. Remarkably, the federated model reached a peak accuracy of 61.23%, demonstrating a marginal performance loss in exchange for a robust privacy guarantee. The results indicate that Federated Learning is a viable and effective solution for building collaborative predictive models in the Brazilian educational context, in alignment with the requirements of the LGPD.

In-Context Learning as Nonparametric Conditional Probability Estimation: Risk Bounds and Optimality

arXiv:2508.08673v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: This paper investigates the expected excess risk of in-context learning (ICL) for multiclass classification. We formalize each task as a sequence of labeled examples followed by a query input; a pretrained model then estimates the query's conditional class probabilities. The expected excess risk is defined as the average truncated Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the predicted and true conditional class distributions over a specified family of tasks. We establish a new oracle inequality for this risk, based on KL divergence, in multiclass classification. This yields tight upper and lower bounds for transformer-based models, showing that the ICL estimator achieves the minimax optimal rate (up to logarithmic factors) for conditional probability estimation. From a technical standpoint, our results introduce a novel method for controlling generalization error via uniform empirical entropy. We further demonstrate that multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) can also perform ICL and attain the same optimal rate (up to logarithmic factors) under suitable assumptions, suggesting that effective ICL need not be exclusive to transformer architectures.

Inference in Spreading Processes with Neural-Network Priors

arXiv:2509.02073v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Stochastic processes on graphs are a powerful tool for modelling complex dynamical systems such as epidemics. A recent line of work focused on the inference problem where one aims to estimate the state of every node at every time, starting from partial observation of a subset of nodes at a subset of times. In these works, the initial state of the process was assumed to be random i.i.d. over nodes. Such an assumption may not be realistic in practice, where one may have access to a set of covariate variables for every node that influence the initial state of the system. In this work, we will assume that the initial state of a node is an unknown function of such covariate variables. Given that functions can be represented by neural networks, we will study a model where the initial state is given by a simple neural network -- notably the single-layer perceptron acting on the known node-wise covariate variables. Within a Bayesian framework, we study how such neural-network prior information enhances the recovery of initial states and spreading trajectories. We derive a hybrid belief propagation and approximate message passing (BP-AMP) algorithm that handles both the spreading dynamics and the information included in the node covariates, and we assess its performance against the estimators that either use only the spreading information or use only the information from the covariate variables. We show that in some regimes, the model can exhibit first-order phase transitions when using a Rademacher distribution for the neural-network weights. These transitions create a statistical-to-computational gap where even the BP-AMP algorithm, despite the theoretical possibility of perfect recovery, fails to achieve it.