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Causal Structure Learning in Hawkes Processes with Complex Latent Confounder Networks

arXiv:2508.11727v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Multivariate Hawkes process provides a powerful framework for modeling temporal dependencies and event-driven interactions in complex systems. While existing methods primarily focus on uncovering causal structures among observed subprocesses, real-world systems are often only partially…

Bridging Arbitrary and Tree Metrics via Differentiable Gromov Hyperbolicity

arXiv:2505.21073v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Trees and the associated shortest-path tree metrics provide a powerful framework for representing hierarchical and combinatorial structures in data. Given an arbitrary metric space, its deviation from a tree metric can be quantified by Gromov’s…

Empirical PAC-Bayes bounds for Markov chains

arXiv:2509.20985v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The core of generalization theory was developed for independent observations. Some PAC and PAC-Bayes bounds are available for data that exhibit a temporal dependence. However, there are constants in these bounds that depend on properties…

Regularization can make diffusion models more efficient

arXiv:2502.09151v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Diffusion models are one of the key architectures of generative AI. Their main drawback, however, is the computational costs. This study indicates that the concept of sparsity, well known especially in statistics, can provide a…

RAPTOR-GEN: RApid PosTeriOR GENerator for Bayesian Learning in Biomanufacturing

arXiv:2509.20753v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Biopharmaceutical manufacturing is vital to public health but lacks the agility for rapid, on-demand production of biotherapeutics due to the complexity and variability of bioprocesses. To overcome this, we introduce RApid PosTeriOR GENerator (RAPTOR-GEN), a…

Conditionally Whitened Generative Models for Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting

arXiv:2509.20928v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic forecasting of multivariate time series is challenging due to non-stationarity, inter-variable dependencies, and distribution shifts. While recent diffusion and flow matching models have shown promise, they often ignore informative priors such as conditional means…

Unsupervised Domain Adaptation with an Unobservable Source Subpopulation

arXiv:2509.20587v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study an unsupervised domain adaptation problem where the source domain consists of subpopulations defined by the binary label $Y$ and a binary background (or environment) $A$. We focus on a challenging setting in which…