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arXiv:2505.23980v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Understanding Greenland's subglacial topography is critical for projecting the future mass loss of the ice sheet and its contribution to global sea-level rise. However, the complex and sparse nature of observational data, particularly information about the bed topography under the ice sheet, significantly increases the uncertainty in model projections. Bed topography is traditionally measured by airborne ice-penetrating radar that measures the ice thickness directly underneath the aircraft, leaving data gap of tens of kilometers in between flight lines. This study introduces a deep learning framework, which we call as DeepTopoNet, that integrates radar-derived ice thickness observations and BedMachine Greenland data through a novel dynamic loss-balancing mechanism. Among all efforts to reconstruct bed topography, BedMachine has emerged as one of the most widely used datasets, combining mass conservation principles and ice thickness measurements to generate high-resolution bed elevation estimates. The proposed loss function adaptively adjusts the weighting between radar and BedMachine data, ensuring robustness in areas with limited radar coverage while leveraging the high spatial resolution of BedMachine predictions i.e. bed estimates. Our approach incorporates gradient-based and trend surface features to enhance model performance and utilizes a CNN architecture designed for subgrid-scale predictions. By systematically testing on the Upernavik Isstr{o}m) region, the model achieves high accuracy, outperforming baseline methods in reconstructing subglacial terrain. This work demonstrates the potential of deep learning in bridging observational gaps, providing a scalable and efficient solution to inferring subglacial topography.

arXiv:2509.02844v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conformal prediction has been explored as a general and efficient way to provide uncertainty quantification for time series. However, current methods struggle to handle time series data with change points - sudden shifts in the underlying data-generating process. In this paper, we propose a novel Conformal Prediction for Time-series with Change points (CPTC) algorithm, addressing this gap by integrating a model to predict the underlying state with online conformal prediction to model uncertainties in non-stationary time series. We prove CPTC's validity and improved adaptivity in the time series setting under minimum assumptions, and demonstrate CPTC's practical effectiveness on 6 synthetic and real-world datasets, showing improved validity and adaptivity compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

arXiv:2509.02579v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Protecting endangered wildlife from illegal poaching presents a critical challenge, particularly in vast and partially observable environments where real-time response is essential. This paper introduces a novel Expectation-Maximization (EM) based latent variable modeling approach in the context of Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) coordination in wildlife protection. By modeling hidden environmental factors and inter-agent dynamics through latent variables, our method enhances exploration and coordination under uncertainty.We implement and evaluate our EM-MARL framework using a custom simulation involving 10 UAVs tasked with patrolling protected habitats of the endangered Iranian leopard. Extensive experimental results demonstrate superior performance in detection accuracy, adaptability, and policy convergence when compared to standard algorithms such as Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG). Our findings underscore the potential of combining EM inference with MARL to improve decentralized decisionmaking in complex, high-stakes conservation scenarios. The full implementation, simulation environment, and training scripts are publicly available on GitHub.

arXiv:2509.02846v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) are the bedrock for modern computational sciences and engineering, and inherently computationally expensive. While PDE foundation models have shown much promise for simulating such complex spatio-temporal phenomena, existing models remain constrained by the pretraining datasets and struggle with auto-regressive rollout performance, especially in out-of-distribution (OOD) cases. Furthermore, they have significant compute and training data requirements which hamper their use in many critical applications. Inspired by recent advances in ``thinking" strategies used in large language models (LLMs), we introduce the first test-time computing (TTC) strategy for PDEs that utilizes computational resources during inference to achieve more accurate predictions with fewer training samples and smaller models. We accomplish this with two types of reward models that evaluate predictions of a stochastic based model for spatio-temporal consistency. We demonstrate this method on compressible Euler-equation simulations from the PDEGym benchmark and show that TTC captures improved predictions relative to standard non-adaptive auto-regressive inference. This TTC framework marks a foundational step towards more advanced reasoning algorithms or PDE modeling, inluding building reinforcement-learning-based approaches, potentially transforming computational workflows in physics and engineering.

arXiv:2509.03348v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Auto-bidding is central to computational advertising, achieving notable commercial success by optimizing advertisers' bids within economic constraints. Recently, large generative models show potential to revolutionize auto-bidding by generating bids that could flexibly adapt to complex, competitive environments. Among them, diffusers stand out for their ability to address sparse-reward challenges by focusing on trajectory-level accumulated rewards, as well as their explainable capability, i.e., planning a future trajectory of states and executing bids accordingly. However, diffusers struggle with generation uncertainty, particularly regarding dynamic legitimacy between adjacent states, which can lead to poor bids and further cause significant loss of ad impression opportunities when competing with other advertisers in a highly competitive auction environment. To address it, we propose a Causal auto-Bidding method based on a Diffusion completer-aligner framework, termed CBD. Firstly, we augment the diffusion training process with an extra random variable t, where the model observes t-length historical sequences with the goal of completing the remaining sequence, thereby enhancing the generated sequences' dynamic legitimacy. Then, we employ a trajectory-level return model to refine the generated trajectories, aligning more closely with advertisers' objectives. Experimental results across diverse settings demonstrate that our approach not only achieves superior performance on large-scale auto-bidding benchmarks, such as a 29.9% improvement in conversion value in the challenging sparse-reward auction setting, but also delivers significant improvements on the Kuaishou online advertising platform, including a 2.0% increase in target cost.

arXiv:2509.02861v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The necessary integration of renewable energy sources, combined with the expanding scale of power networks, presents significant challenges in controlling modern power grids. Traditional control systems, which are human and optimization-based, struggle to adapt and to scale in such an evolving context, motivating the exploration of more dynamic and distributed control strategies. This work advances a graph-based distributed reinforcement learning framework for real-time, scalable grid management. The proposed architecture consists of a network of distributed low-level agents acting on individual power lines and coordinated by a high-level manager agent. A Graph Neural Network (GNN) is employed to encode the network's topological information within the single low-level agent's observation. To accelerate convergence and enhance learning stability, the framework integrates imitation learning and potential-based reward shaping. In contrast to conventional decentralized approaches that decompose only the action space while relying on global observations, this method also decomposes the observation space. Each low-level agent acts based on a structured and informative local view of the environment constructed through the GNN. Experiments on the Grid2Op simulation environment show the effectiveness of the approach, which consistently outperforms the standard baseline commonly adopted in the field. Additionally, the proposed model proves to be much more computationally efficient than the simulation-based Expert method.

arXiv:2509.03495v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Interconnection studies require solving numerous instances of the AC load or power flow (AC PF) problem to simulate diverse scenarios as power systems navigate the ongoing energy transition. To expedite such studies, this work leverages recent advances in quantum computing to find or predict AC PF solutions using a variational quantum circuit (VQC). VQCs are trainable models that run on modern-day noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) hardware to accomplish elaborate optimization and machine learning (ML) tasks. Our first contribution is to pose a single instance of the AC PF as a nonlinear least-squares fit over the VQC trainable parameters (weights) and solve it using a hybrid classical/quantum computing approach. The second contribution is to feed PF specifications as features into a data-embedded VQC and train the resultant quantum ML (QML) model to predict general PF solutions. The third contribution is to develop a novel protocol to efficiently measure AC-PF quantum observables by exploiting the graph structure of a power network. Preliminary numerical tests indicate that the proposed VQC models attain enhanced prediction performance over a deep neural network despite using much fewer weights. The proposed quantum AC-PF framework sets the foundations for addressing more elaborate grid tasks via quantum computing.

arXiv:2509.02863v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Class imbalance remains a critical challenge in machine learning (ML), particularly in the medical domain, where underrepresented minority classes lead to biased models and reduced predictive performance. This study introduces Quantum-Inspired SMOTE (QI-SMOTE), a novel data augmentation technique that enhances the performance of ML classifiers, including Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Gradient Boosting (GB), and Neural Networks, by leveraging quantum principles such as quantum evolution and layered entanglement. Unlike conventional oversampling methods, QI-SMOTE generates synthetic instances that preserve complex data structures, improving model generalization and classification accuracy. We validate QI-SMOTE on the MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV datasets, using mortality detection as a benchmark task due to their clinical significance and inherent class imbalance. We compare our method against traditional oversampling techniques, including Borderline-SMOTE, ADASYN, SMOTE-ENN, SMOTE-TOMEK, and SVM-SMOTE, using key performance metrics such as Accuracy, F1-score, G-Mean, and AUC-ROC. The results demonstrate that QI-SMOTE significantly improves the effectiveness of ensemble methods (RF, GB, ADA), kernel-based models (SVM), and deep learning approaches by producing more informative and balanced training data. By integrating quantum-inspired transformations into the ML pipeline, QI-SMOTE not only mitigates class imbalance but also enhances the robustness and reliability of predictive models in medical diagnostics and decision-making. This study highlights the potential of quantum-inspired resampling techniques in advancing state-of-the-art ML methodologies.

arXiv:2408.07897v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Recommendation systems now pervade the digital world, ranging from advertising to entertainment. However, it remains challenging to implement effective recommendation systems in the physical world, such as in mobility or health. This work focuses on a key challenge: in the physical world, it is often easy for the user to opt out of taking any recommendation if they are not to her liking, and to fall back to her baseline behavior. It is thus crucial in cyber-physical recommendation systems to operate with an interaction model that is aware of such user behavior, lest the user abandon the recommendations altogether. This paper thus introduces the Nah Bandit, a tongue-in-cheek reference to describe a Bandit problem where users can say `nah' to the recommendation and opt for their preferred option instead. As such, this problem lies in between a typical bandit setup and supervised learning. We model the user non-compliance by parameterizing an anchoring effect of recommendations on users. We then propose the Expert with Clustering (EWC) algorithm, a hierarchical approach that incorporates feedback from both recommended and non-recommended options to accelerate user preference learning. In a recommendation scenario with $N$ users, $T$ rounds per user, and $K$ clusters, EWC achieves a regret bound of $O(Nsqrt{Tlog K} + NT)$, achieving superior theoretical performance in the short term compared to LinUCB algorithm. Experimental results also highlight that EWC outperforms both supervised learning and traditional contextual bandit approaches. This advancement reveals that effective use of non-compliance feedback can accelerate preference learning and improve recommendation accuracy. This work lays the foundation for future research in Nah Bandit, providing a robust framework for more effective recommendation systems.

arXiv:2509.02892v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Generating synthetic datasets that accurately reflect real-world observational data is critical for evaluating causal estimators, but remains a challenging task. Existing generative methods offer a solution by producing synthetic datasets anchored in the observed data (source data) while allowing variation in key parameters such as the treatment effect and amount of confounding bias. However, existing methods typically require users to provide point estimates of such parameters (rather than distributions) and fixed estimates (rather than estimates that can be improved with reference to the source data). This denies users the ability to express uncertainty over parameter values and removes the potential for posterior inference, potentially leading to unreliable estimator comparisons. We introduce simulation-based inference for causal evaluation (SBICE), a framework that models generative parameters as uncertain and infers their posterior distribution given a source dataset. Leveraging techniques in simulation-based inference, SBICE identifies parameter configurations that produce synthetic datasets closely aligned with the source data distribution. Empirical results demonstrate that SBICE improves the reliability of estimator evaluations by generating more realistic datasets, which supports a robust and data-consistent approach to causal benchmarking under uncertainty.