Archives AI News

MOSAIC: Minimax-Optimal Sparsity-Adaptive Inference for Change Points in Dynamic Networks

arXiv:2509.06303v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We propose a new inference framework, named MOSAIC, for change-point detection in dynamic networks with the simultaneous low-rank and sparse-change structure. We establish the minimax rate of detection boundary, which relies on the sparsity of changes. We then develop an eigen-decomposition-based test with screened signals that approaches the minimax rate in theory, with only a minor logarithmic loss. For practical implementation of MOSAIC, we adjust the theoretical test by a novel residual-based technique, resulting in a pivotal statistic that converges to a standard normal distribution via the martingale central limit theorem under the null hypothesis and achieves full power under the alternative hypothesis. We also analyze the minimax rate of testing boundary for dynamic networks without the low-rank structure, which almost aligns with the results in high-dimensional mean-vector change-point inference. We showcase the effectiveness of MOSAIC and verify our theoretical results with several simulation examples and a real data application.

Autoencoders in Function Space

arXiv:2408.01362v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Autoencoders have found widespread application in both their original deterministic form and in their variational formulation (VAEs). In scientific applications and in image processing it is often of interest to consider data that are viewed as functions; while discretisation (of differential equations arising in the sciences) or pixellation (of images) renders problems finite dimensional in practice, conceiving first of algorithms that operate on functions, and only then discretising or pixellating, leads to better algorithms that smoothly operate between resolutions. In this paper function-space versions of the autoencoder (FAE) and variational autoencoder (FVAE) are introduced, analysed, and deployed. Well-definedness of the objective governing VAEs is a subtle issue, particularly in function space, limiting applicability. For the FVAE objective to be well defined requires compatibility of the data distribution with the chosen generative model; this can be achieved, for example, when the data arise from a stochastic differential equation, but is generally restrictive. The FAE objective, on the other hand, is well defined in many situations where FVAE fails to be. Pairing the FVAE and FAE objectives with neural operator architectures that can be evaluated on any mesh enables new applications of autoencoders to inpainting, superresolution, and generative modelling of scientific data.

Uncertainty Quantification in Probabilistic Machine Learning Models: Theory, Methods, and Insights

arXiv:2509.05877v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty in probabilistic models. We focus on Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models and employ scalable Random Fourier Features-based Gaussian Processes to approximate predictive distributions efficiently. We derive a theoretical formulation for UQ, propose a Monte Carlo sampling-based estimation method, and conduct experiments to evaluate the impact of uncertainty estimation. Our results provide insights into the sources of predictive uncertainty and illustrate the effectiveness of our approach in quantifying the confidence in the predictions.

Additive Distributionally Robust Ranking and Selection

arXiv:2509.06147v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Ranking and selection (R&S) aims to identify the alternative with the best mean performance among $k$ simulated alternatives. The practical value of R&S depends on accurate simulation input modeling, which often suffers from the curse of input uncertainty due to limited data. Distributionally robust ranking and selection (DRR&S) addresses this challenge by modeling input uncertainty via an ambiguity set of $m > 1$ plausible input distributions, resulting in $km$ scenarios in total. Recent DRR&S studies suggest a key structural insight: additivity in budget allocation is essential for efficiency. However, existing justifications are heuristic, and fundamental properties such as consistency and the precise allocation pattern induced by additivity remain poorly understood. In this paper, we propose a simple additive allocation (AA) procedure that aims to exclusively sample the $k + m - 1$ previously hypothesized critical scenarios. Leveraging boundary-crossing arguments, we establish a lower bound on the probability of correct selection and characterize the procedure's budget allocation behavior. We then prove that AA is consistent and, surprisingly, achieves additivity in the strongest sense: as the total budget increases, only $k + m - 1$ scenarios are sampled infinitely often. Notably, the worst-case scenarios of non-best alternatives may not be among them, challenging prior beliefs about their criticality. These results offer new and counterintuitive insights into the additive structure of DRR&S. To improve practical performance while preserving this structure, we introduce a general additive allocation (GAA) framework that flexibly incorporates sampling rules from traditional R&S procedures in a modular fashion. Numerical experiments support our theoretical findings and demonstrate the competitive performance of the proposed GAA procedures.

Fisher Random Walk: Automatic Debiasing Contextual Preference Inference for Large Language Model Evaluation

arXiv:2509.05852v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Motivated by the need for rigorous and scalable evaluation of large language models, we study contextual preference inference for pairwise comparison functionals of context-dependent preference score functions across domains. Focusing on the contextual Bradley-Terry-Luce model, we develop a semiparametric efficient estimator that automates the debiased estimation through aggregating weighted residual balancing terms across the comparison graph. We show that the efficiency is achieved when the weights are derived from a novel strategy called Fisher random walk. We also propose a computationally feasible method to compute the weights by a potential representation of nuisance weight functions. We show our inference procedure is valid for general score function estimators accommodating the practitioners' need to implement flexible deep learning methods. We extend the procedure to multiple hypothesis testing using a Gaussian multiplier bootstrap that controls familywise error and to distributional shift via a cross-fitted importance-sampling adjustment for target-domain inference. Numerical studies, including language model evaluations under diverse contexts, corroborate the accuracy, efficiency, and practical utility of our method.

Causal Clustering for Conditional Average Treatment Effects Estimation and Subgroup Discovery

arXiv:2509.05775v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is critical in domains such as personalized medicine, resource allocation, and policy evaluation. A central challenge lies in identifying subpopulations that respond differently to interventions, thereby enabling more targeted and effective decision-making. While clustering methods are well-studied in unsupervised learning, their integration with causal inference remains limited. We propose a novel framework that clusters individuals based on estimated treatment effects using a learned kernel derived from causal forests, revealing latent subgroup structures. Our approach consists of two main steps. First, we estimate debiased Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) using orthogonalized learners via the Robinson decomposition, yielding a kernel matrix that encodes sample-level similarities in treatment responsiveness. Second, we apply kernelized clustering to this matrix to uncover distinct, treatment-sensitive subpopulations and compute cluster-level average CATEs. We present this kernelized clustering step as a form of regularization within the residual-on-residual regression framework. Through extensive experiments on semi-synthetic and real-world datasets, supported by ablation studies and exploratory analyses, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in capturing meaningful treatment effect heterogeneity.

HAVE: Head-Adaptive Gating and ValuE Calibration for Hallucination Mitigation in Large Language Models

arXiv:2509.06596v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) often produce hallucinations in retrieval-augmented or long-context generation, even when relevant evidence is present. This stems from two issues: head importance is treated as input-agnostic, and raw attention weights poorly reflect each token's true contribution. We present HAVE (Head-Adaptive Gating and ValuE Calibration), a parameter-free decoding framework that directly addresses both challenges. HAVE introduces head-adaptive gating, which performs instance-level soft reweighing of attention heads, and value calibration, which augments attention with the magnitude of value vectors to approximate write-back contribution. Together, these modules construct token-level evidence aligned with model updates and fuse it with the LM distribution through a lightweight uncertainty-scaled policy. HAVE requires no finetuning and operates in a single forward pass, making it efficient and broadly applicable. Experiments across multiple QA benchmarks and LLM families demonstrate that HAVE consistently reduces hallucinations and outperforms strong baselines, including DAGCD, with modest overhead. The framework is transparent, reproducible, and readily integrates with off-the-shelf LLMs, advancing trustworthy generation in real-world settings.

COMPACT: Common-token Optimized Model Pruning Across Channels and Tokens

arXiv:2509.06836v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Making LLMs more efficient in memory, latency, and serving cost is crucial for edge deployment, interactive applications, and sustainable inference at scale. Pruning is a key technique toward this goal. However, prior pruning methods are limited: width pruning often breaks the standard transformer layout or requires custom inference code, while depth pruning removes entire layers and can cause abrupt accuracy drops. In this work, we propose COMPACT, which jointly (i) prunes rare vocabulary to shrink embedding/unembedding and (ii) prunes FFN intermediate channels using common-token-weighted activations, aligning importance with the post-pruning token distribution. COMPACT enjoys merits of both depth and width pruning, such as: deployment-friendliness (keeps a standard transformer architecture), scale-adaptivity (trade off vocab vs. FFN pruning), training-free operation with competitive pruning time, and strong memory savings alongside throughput gains. Experiments across Qwen, LLaMA, and Gemma families (0.5B-70B) show state-of-the-art downstream task performance at similar or higher pruning ratios, with substantial reductions in parameters, GPU memory, and end-to-end latency.

LanternNet: A Hub-and-Spoke System to Seek and Suppress Spotted Lanternfly Populations

arXiv:2507.20800v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The invasive spotted lanternfly (SLF) poses a significant threat to agriculture and ecosystems, causing widespread damage. Current control methods, such as egg scraping, pesticides, and quarantines, prove labor-intensive, environmentally hazardous, and inadequate for long-term SLF suppression. This research introduces LanternNet, a novel autonomous robotic Hub-and-Spoke system designed for scalable detection and suppression of SLF populations. A central, tree-mimicking hub utilizes a YOLOv8 computer vision model for precise SLF identification. Three specialized robotic spokes perform targeted tasks: pest neutralization, environmental monitoring, and navigation/mapping. Field deployment across multiple infested sites over 5 weeks demonstrated LanternNet's efficacy. Quantitative analysis revealed significant reductions (p < 0.01, paired t-tests) in SLF populations and corresponding improvements in tree health indicators across the majority of test sites. Compared to conventional methods, LanternNet offers substantial cost advantages and improved scalability. Furthermore, the system's adaptability for enhanced autonomy and targeting of other invasive species presents significant potential for broader ecological impact. LanternNet demonstrates the transformative potential of integrating robotics and AI for advanced invasive species management and improved environmental outcomes.

The Over-Certainty Phenomenon in Modern Test-Time Adaptation Algorithms

arXiv:2404.16168v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: When neural networks are confronted with unfamiliar data that deviate from their training set, this signifies a domain shift. While these networks output predictions on their inputs, they typically fail to account for their level of familiarity with these novel observations. Prevailing works navigate test-time adaptation with the goal of curtailing model entropy, yet they unintentionally produce models that struggle with sub-optimal calibration-a dilemma we term the over-certainty phenomenon. This over-certainty in predictions can be particularly dangerous in the setting of domain shifts, as it may lead to misplaced trust. In this paper, we propose a solution that not only maintains accuracy but also addresses calibration by mitigating the over-certainty phenomenon. To do this, we introduce a certainty regularizer that dynamically adjusts pseudo-label confidence by accounting for both backbone entropy and logit norm. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of Expected Calibration Error and Negative Log Likelihood, all while maintaining parity in accuracy.