Archives AI News

arXiv:2509.04465v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In conflict, people use emotional expressions to shape their counterparts' thoughts, feelings, and actions. This paper explores whether automatic text emotion recognition offers insight into this influence in the context of dispute resolution. Prior work has shown the promise of such methods in negotiations; however, disputes evoke stronger emotions and different social processes. We use a large corpus of buyer-seller dispute dialogues to investigate how emotional expressions shape subjective and objective outcomes. We further demonstrate that large-language models yield considerably greater explanatory power than previous methods for emotion intensity annotation and better match the decisions of human annotators. Findings support existing theoretical models for how emotional expressions contribute to conflict escalation and resolution and suggest that agent-based systems could be useful in managing disputes by recognizing and potentially mitigating emotional escalation.

arXiv:2509.04991v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Land surface temperature (LST) is vital for land-atmosphere interactions and climate processes. Accurate LST retrieval remains challenging under heterogeneous land cover and extreme atmospheric conditions. Traditional split window (SW) algorithms show biases in humid environments; purely machine learning (ML) methods lack interpretability and generalize poorly with limited data. We propose a coupled mechanism model-ML (MM-ML) framework integrating physical constraints with data-driven learning for robust LST retrieval. Our approach fuses radiative transfer modeling with data components, uses MODTRAN simulations with global atmospheric profiles, and employs physics-constrained optimization. Validation against 4,450 observations from 29 global sites shows MM-ML achieves MAE=1.84K, RMSE=2.55K, and R-squared=0.966, outperforming conventional methods. Under extreme conditions, MM-ML reduces errors by over 50%. Sensitivity analysis indicates LST estimates are most sensitive to sensor radiance, then water vapor, and less to emissivity, with MM-ML showing superior stability. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of our coupled modeling strategy for retrieving geophysical parameters. The MM-ML framework combines physical interpretability with nonlinear modeling capacity, enabling reliable LST retrieval in complex environments and supporting climate monitoring and ecosystem studies.

arXiv:2504.01807v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Certifying safety in dynamical systems is crucial, but barrier certificates - widely used to verify that system trajectories remain within a safe region - typically require explicit system models. When dynamics are unknown, data-driven methods can be used instead, yet obtaining a valid certificate requires rigorous uncertainty quantification. For this purpose, existing methods usually rely on full-state measurements, limiting their applicability. This paper proposes a novel approach for synthesizing barrier certificates for unknown systems with latent states and polynomial dynamics. A Bayesian framework is employed, where a prior in state-space representation is updated using output data via a targeted marginal Metropolis-Hastings sampler. The resulting samples are used to construct a barrier certificate through a sum-of-squares program. Probabilistic guarantees for its validity with respect to the true, unknown system are obtained by testing on an additional set of posterior samples. The approach and its probabilistic guarantees are illustrated through a numerical simulation.

arXiv:2504.02618v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The Schr"{o}dinger bridge (SB) has evolved into a universal class of probabilistic generative models. In practice, however, estimated learning signals are innately uncertain, and the reliability promised by existing methods is often based on speculative optimal case scenarios. Recent studies regarding the Sinkhorn algorithm through mirror descent (MD) have gained attention, revealing geometric insights into solution acquisition of the SB problems. In this paper, we propose a variational online MD (OMD) framework for the SB problems, which provides further stability to SB solvers. We formally prove convergence and a regret bound for the novel OMD formulation of SB acquisition. As a result, we propose a simulation-free SB algorithm called Variational Mirrored Schr"{o}dinger Bridge (VMSB) by utilizing the Wasserstein-Fisher-Rao geometry of the Gaussian mixture parameterization for Schr"{o}dinger potentials. Based on the Wasserstein gradient flow theory, the algorithm offers tractable learning dynamics that precisely approximate each OMD step. In experiments, we validate the performance of the proposed VMSB algorithm across an extensive suite of benchmarks. VMSB consistently outperforms contemporary SB solvers on a wide range of SB problems, demonstrating the robustness as well as generality predicted by our OMD theory.

arXiv:2509.04919v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In this paper, we study the problem of estimating the variance and covariance of datasets under differential privacy in the add-remove model. While estimation in the swap model has been extensively studied in the literature, the add-remove model remains less explored and more challenging, as the dataset size must also be kept private. To address this issue, we develop efficient mechanisms for variance and covariance estimation based on the emph{B'{e}zier mechanism}, a novel moment-release framework that leverages Bernstein bases. We prove that our proposed mechanisms are minimax optimal in the high-privacy regime by establishing new minimax lower bounds. Moreover, beyond worst-case scenarios, we analyze instance-wise utility and show that the B'{e}zier-based estimator consistently achieves better utility compared to alternative mechanisms. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the B'{e}zier mechanism beyond variance and covariance estimation, showcasing its applicability to other statistical tasks.

arXiv:2504.19231v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We derive the ideal train/test split for the ridge regression to high accuracy in the limit that the number of training rows m becomes large. The split must depend on the ridge tuning parameter, alpha, but we find that the dependence is weak and can asymptotically be ignored; all parameters vanish except for m and the number of features, n, which is held constant. This is the first time that such a split is calculated mathematically for a machine learning model in the large data limit. The goal of the calculations is to maximize "integrity," so that the measured error in the trained model is as close as possible to what it theoretically should be. This paper's result for the ridge regression split matches prior art for the plain vanilla linear regression split to the first two terms asymptotically.

arXiv:2410.21621v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We revisit the sequential variants of linear regression with the squared loss, classification problems with hinge loss, and logistic regression, all characterized by unbounded losses in the setup where no assumptions are made on the magnitude of design vectors and the norm of the optimal vector of parameters. The key distinction from existing results lies in our assumption that the set of design vectors is known in advance (though their order is not), a setup sometimes referred to as transductive online learning. While this assumption seems similar to fixed design regression or denoising, we demonstrate that the sequential nature of our algorithms allows us to convert our bounds into statistical ones with random design without making any additional assumptions about the distribution of the design vectors--an impossibility for standard denoising results. Our key tools are based on the exponential weights algorithm with carefully chosen transductive (design-dependent) priors, which exploit the full horizon of the design vectors. Our classification regret bounds have a feature that is only attributed to bounded losses in the literature: they depend solely on the dimension of the parameter space and on the number of rounds, independent of the design vectors or the norm of the optimal solution. For linear regression with squared loss, we further extend our analysis to the sparse case, providing sparsity regret bounds that additionally depend on the magnitude of the response variables. We argue that these improved bounds are specific to the transductive setting and unattainable in the worst-case sequential setup. Our algorithms, in several cases, have polynomial time approximations and reduce to sampling with respect to log-concave measures instead of aggregating over hard-to-construct $varepsilon$-covers of classes.

arXiv:2312.16019v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Survival Analysis (SA) models the time until an event occurs, with applications in fields like medicine, defense, finance, and aerospace. Recent research indicates that Neural Networks (NNs) can effectively capture complex data patterns in SA, whereas simple generalized linear models often fall short in this regard. However, dataset uncertainties (e.g., noisy measurements, human error) can degrade NN model performance. To address this, we leverage advances in NN verification to develop training objectives for robust, fully-parametric SA models. Specifically, we propose an adversarially robust loss function based on a Min-Max optimization problem. We employ CROWN-Interval Bound Propagation (CROWN-IBP) to tackle the computational challenges inherent in solving this Min-Max problem. Evaluated over 10 SurvSet datasets, our method, Survival Analysis with Adversarial Regularization (SAWAR), consistently outperforms baseline adversarial training methods and state-of-the-art (SOTA) deep SA models across various covariate perturbations with respect to Negative Log Likelihood (NegLL), Integrated Brier Score (IBS), and Concordance Index (CI) metrics. Thus, we demonstrate that adversarial robustness enhances SA predictive performance and calibration, mitigating data uncertainty and improving generalization across diverse datasets by up to 150% compared to baselines.

arXiv:2404.07864v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We consider the problem of localizing change points in a generalized linear model (GLM), a model that covers many widely studied problems in statistical learning including linear, logistic, and rectified linear regression. We propose a novel and computationally efficient Approximate Message Passing (AMP) algorithm for estimating both the signals and the change point locations, and rigorously characterize its performance in the high-dimensional limit where the number of parameters $p$ is proportional to the number of samples $n$. This characterization is in terms of a state evolution recursion, which allows us to precisely compute performance measures such as the asymptotic Hausdorff error of our change point estimates, and allows us to tailor the algorithm to take advantage of any prior structural information on the signals and change points. Moreover, we show how our AMP iterates can be used to efficiently compute a Bayesian posterior distribution over the change point locations in the high-dimensional limit. We validate our theory via numerical experiments, and demonstrate the favorable performance of our estimators on both synthetic and real data in the settings of linear, logistic, and rectified linear regression.

arXiv:2509.05186v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In-context operator networks (ICON) are a class of operator learning methods based on the novel architectures of foundation models. Trained on a diverse set of datasets of initial and boundary conditions paired with corresponding solutions to ordinary and partial differential equations (ODEs and PDEs), ICON learns to map example condition-solution pairs of a given differential equation to an approximation of its solution operator. Here, we present a probabilistic framework that reveals ICON as implicitly performing Bayesian inference, where it computes the mean of the posterior predictive distribution over solution operators conditioned on the provided context, i.e., example condition-solution pairs. The formalism of random differential equations provides the probabilistic framework for describing the tasks ICON accomplishes while also providing a basis for understanding other multi-operator learning methods. This probabilistic perspective provides a basis for extending ICON to emph{generative} settings, where one can sample from the posterior predictive distribution of solution operators. The generative formulation of ICON (GenICON) captures the underlying uncertainty in the solution operator, which enables principled uncertainty quantification in the solution predictions in operator learning.