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Forecasting Supply Chain Disruptions with Foresight Learning

arXiv:2604.01298v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Anticipating supply chain disruptions before they materialize is a core challenge for firms and policymakers alike. A key difficulty is learning to reason reliably about infrequent, high-impact events from noisy and unstructured inputs – a…

Coarsening Causal DAG Models

arXiv:2601.10531v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Directed acyclic graphical (DAG) models are a powerful tool for representing causal relationships among jointly distributed random variables, especially concerning data from across different experimental settings. However, it is not always practical or desirable to…

Model Merging via Data-Free Covariance Estimation

arXiv:2604.01329v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Model merging provides a way of cheaply combining individual models to produce a model that inherits each individual’s capabilities. While some merging methods can approach the performance of multitask training, they are often heuristically motivated…

SECURE: Stable Early Collision Understanding via Robust Embeddings in Autonomous Driving

arXiv:2604.01337v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: While deep learning has significantly advanced accident anticipation, the robustness of these safety-critical systems against real-world perturbations remains a major challenge. We reveal that state-of-the-art models like CRASH, despite their high performance, exhibit significant instability…

Modeling Multi-Objective Tradeoffs with Monotonic Utility Functions

arXiv:2412.06154v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Countless science and engineering applications in multi-objective optimization (MOO) necessitate that decision-makers (DMs) select a Pareto-optimal (PO) solution which aligns with their preferences. Evaluating individual solutions is often expensive, and the high-dimensional trade-off space makes…

Massively Parallel Exact Inference for Hawkes Processes

arXiv:2604.01342v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Multivariate Hawkes processes are a widely used class of self-exciting point processes, but maximum likelihood estimation naively scales as $O(N^2)$ in the number of events. The canonical linear exponential Hawkes process admits a faster $O(N)$…

Unveiling m-Sharpness Through the Structure of Stochastic Gradient Noise

arXiv:2509.18001v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Sharpness-aware minimization (SAM) has emerged as a highly effective technique to improve model generalization, but its underlying principles are not fully understood. We investigate m-sharpness, where SAM performance improves monotonically as the micro-batch size for…